Monday, April 6, 2009

MLB 2K9 / MLB 09 Stat Tests

I have a 5 page feature online today discussing the sim engine for 2K and Sony's games.

I simmed 5 seasons with each game and rambled on about what I saw.

One game saw Washington win three (3) NL East titles...

Seriously.

1 comment:

Jayhawker said...

I think your test is a bit flawed. For one, you should never set injuries and trades to on. Not even OOTP Baseball has a GM AI that won't screw up teams in some way.

We have no way to analyze how accurate the standings are, because if Pujols is out for the year in two simulations, that has a pretty large effect.

Second, five is way too small to make the leaps you have made about the standings. Diamond Mind baseball always did 5000 simulations. I read a simulation for this season by another group using DMB, that went 10,000 simulations. In that one, with much better accuracy and realism, the Nationals won the division 1% of the time. So, that was 100 times that they won the division. While it would be quite the oddity for that to happen three times in the first five simulations, it doesn't really tell you anything until you go quite a bit further out. This is doubly true if you are leaving trades and injuries on.

For grins, I ran five simulations of 2K9 (I don't have a PS3) and the Nationals finished last or second to last in each run. I left trading and injuries off, though. The Cardinals (my team) made the playoffs just once, as a wild card.

I will take a look at the other results when I have some time and see how they stack up. Off hand, I remember the Padres in the World Series once, which would be odd. Really odd.

But overall, it looked like the Rays, Red Sox, Mets, and Cubs dominated. I will try to come up with some average win totals for the teams as well. That tells you more about the simulation as well.