Thursday, July 10, 2008

The Saga of Tim Tebow

Before we get to Timmy...

The bug popped up again in 2009 this time. When selecting "Sim to end of regular season" I stopped the simulation at week 5 to check something and this time it was the PASSING season stats that "contained no data." I have no idea what's going on but folks...I don't like it and if you play Dynasty mode you are not going to like it either. I have no idea what causes this. The last time it was in 2010 and it was the rushing stats. Now it's 2009 and it's passing. Rushing was fine.

The stats ARE there -- you can go into the box scores and see the game by game numbers. It's just when choosing stats it's blank.

Then, after simming the rest of the 2009 season, sacrificing a goat and doing a Pygmy Rain Dance, the passing stats suddenly appeared again and everything was fine. Well, fine is a matter of perspective here I guess.

Anyway--I am trying my best to figure out where these inflated QB ratings are coming from. After simming 2008 again I think I know what's going on. And again, if this doesn't interest you and you want more game impressions...well...sorry. I told you I had OCD with this stuff.

When I was looking at the TD to INT ratio I was forgetting about Completion %. In 2007, there were 18 QBs that completed 65% of their passes (and up). (Go back a few years and it's even fewer than that) In the latest 2008 test sim: 47 QBs nailed at least 65% and 9 were over 70%. That's pretty darn high even for college.

Your average everyday NCAA D1 QB completes about 57-58%. In the videogame that is more like 64%. If you complete under 60% in NCAA you suck. Period. Think those extra points don't matter as far as QB Ratings go?

It matters.

Consider this (and yeah we're really getting into videogame geekdom at this point, but it's what I do...)

Let's take 2009 OSU "starter" Antonio Henton. We shall ignore the fact that Henton transferred to GA Southern over the summer. NCAA has him as a 91 rated QB after Boeckman leaves so he's the man. (We'll save any criticisms/discussions of this game's rudimentary player progression model for another day.)

Henton's 2009 stats were:

194/273 (71%) 2,447 yards 32 TDs and 6 INTs for a QB rating of 180.6. As a point of reference, Heisman winner Troy Smith had a 162 rating in 2005.

Now, let's bring Antonio back to reality. We won't even touch his TDs and INTs which are pretty darn great in their own right. Let's just give the man more incompletions.

Let's say Henton only completed 61%. Still very good -- better than average and way more believable than 71%. Just by doing that Henton's Pass Eff Rating plummets to (a still very good)140.73.

It's the same with every QB. The top guys, all of them, are 69-73% passers. I see this as more of an issue than the INTs. The 33-1 Bockeman season looks to be a bit of an anomaly. I haven't seen a season THAT crazy in the 6 seasons I have simmed. Any simulation is capable of the occasional malfunction. That was a doozie.

OK-- back to Timmy. This is a look at what the engine does.

Tebow's 2008 Simmed Season:
  • Hawaii - 16/20 230 yds 3 TD 0 INT
  • Mia (FL) 21/36 268 3-0
  • Tenn 25/47 344 0-2 (this game was "super simmed" and not simmed regularly...make of that what you will)
  • Ole Miss 4/8 21 0-0 (hurt)
  • Arkansas 17/22 367 5-0
  • LSU 16/19 227 5-0
  • Kentucky 26/29 300 5-0 (it's starting to hit Absurdville at this point)
  • Georgia 7/7 136 4-0 (weird game..wasn't hurt)
  • Vandy 19/27 263 4-0
  • S Car 14/23 140 1-0
  • D1-AA 17/27 313 0-2 (I found this hilarious)
  • FSU 18/24 167 3-0
  • Aub 15/26 206 2-1
  • Oklahoma (Bowl) 14/18 232 0-0

He lost the Heisman that year to Chase Daniel. Chase's numbers were even better.

Oh, yeah, 2008 champs?

Wisconsin

Who'd they beat?

Miami...

....of Ohio.