You may or may not have guessed that I'm a big fan of HD video. I loves my HDTV. I've also been chomping at the bit to get a high definition video disc player, but the format war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD coupled with the high price of early adoption has kept me on the fence.
Let me be clear, I have no vested interest in either format prevailing. I think the whole concept of this format war is disgusting and counter-productive. There have been times where I've leaned towards both formats. Ultimately, it's clear that neither has an obvious technological advantage. This is just about who get to line their pockets. Given that, I think the main metric to look at is the support each format has from the major movie studios.
Through a lot of last year it looked like this:
Blu-Ray:
Sony/MGM (exclusive)
20th Century Fox (exclusive)
Disney (exclusive)
Warner Brothers
Paramount/Dreamworks
HD-DVD:
Universal Studios (exclusive)
Paramount/Dreamworks
Warner Brothers
Blu-ray hardware came out later than HD-DVD and was more expensive, but obviously, you can see why, by the start of 2007's summer season, Blu-Ray was clearly starting to win the format war. (Disclaimer: The sales of both formats combined was still pretty anemic.) It's all about studio support, as the Betamax/VHS war proved two decades ago. (But this time support of the porn industry mean less than nothing, thanks to the Internet.) Around mid-year, however, Paramount/Dreamworks were coaxed (ie - bribed) into going HD-DVD exclusive. Not a whole new ballgame, to be sure, but it was clearly a move that would drag the format war out. Major bummer.
Towards the end of the year, however, I started reading rumors that WB was going to go exclusive with one format or another. Another move to HD-DVD would be a disaster if your primary concern is to see the format war over and done with. Fortunately, that didn't happen, as today WB has joined the Blu-Ray camp. So the revamped studio support list now looks like this:
Blu-Ray:
Sony/MGM (exclusive)
20th Century Fox (exclusive)
Disney (exclusive)
Warner Brothers (exclusive)
EDIT: I left out Lionsgate Studios too (also exclusive)
HD-DVD:
Universal Studios (exclusive)
Paramount/Dreamworks (exclusive)
I'm no expert, and I may be hopelessly naive, but I'd say that could just be the beginning of the end for HD-DVD. It'll take a bit of time, but there's just no way on god's green earth that HD-DVD can survive long in this environment, I don't care if they start giving players away for free at the grocery store every time someone purchases a box of Sugar Smacks.
Sadly, this probably doesn't mean a Blu-ray player in my near future. The cheapest players are still in the $300 to $400 range and that's a bit rich for my blood these days. Still, I think it's a good day for those of us that want to make the HD disc leap, but have been staying on the fence because of this needless format war. A war that is significantly hurting the prospects of either format succeeding, given that most people are all too happy to stick with the plain old DVDs.